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张化桥
张化桥
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张化桥简介

瑞士银行11年 (研究主管,投行副主管)。五年(2001-05)"机构投资者"杂志评选的中国分析师第一名。深圳控股(604.HK)首席运营官(06-08)。1986-89年任职行。

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(2019-02-20 18:19)
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杂谈

When a brother in China calls to ask for money...

The New York Times,

By JOE ZHANG, Dec. 1, 2000

It was past midnight when my telephone rang. It was Hua-Liang, my brother who lives in Jing-Men, a small city in Hubei Province in central China.

'Do you have 1 million renminbi (about $120,000) to spare?' he asked. 'Why?' I queried. 'I am planning a takeover bid for a state-owned factory,' he replied.

The factory that Hua-Liang referred to is the city's largest producer of vegetable oil. It was a cash cow for the city government for many years.

But in the past five years it has been losing a lot of money, putting much strain on the already shrinking local treasury. So, the local government has finally decided to privatize the factory.

I was shocked, not only by the demise of the plant but also by Hua-Liang's revelation that this factory and many other big debtors had just cost him a much cherished job as a banker.

Hua-Liang joined

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杂谈

今天的英国金融时报发表了哈佛大学教授Joseph Nye 的文章,“中国无法超越美国”, China will not overtake America any time soon, 主要是陈词滥调,重复讲中国没有软实力,GDP注水,军事落后,等等。不过有一点他也许是对的:即使在亚洲,中国也受到印度,日本,澳洲和其它国家的制衡,更不要讲亚洲之外了。见图。

我做一点评论。中国的GDP主要是吃饭的GDP, 财政也主要是吃饭的财政,所以中国在吃饭财政之外,能够做未来发展的能力比较弱。这其实是问题之所在。比GDP总量没有太大意义,而人均GDP更为重要。在另一个人口过剩的国家,印度,问题也是一样的。国内很多评论员老是拿GDP总量或者用购买力平价的GDP来跟美國做比较,有点自己骗自己的嫌疑。如果你采购巴西的铁矿石,你就必须付美元,就这么简单!这可是名义货币,未经购买力平价調整的。难道你跟卖方争辩:可是我大中国的GDP有更高的含金量(ppp)吗?


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杂谈

2001年5月3日,我在纽约时报和IHT 发表文章,介紹我的外甥和挤在北京芍药居附近的阴暗和潮湿的地窖里的几十个民工。

Harsh Reality of China's Divide.

By JOE ZHANG, MAY 3, 2001.

 The New York Times, IHT.

On a recent trip here from Hong Kong, I visited my 22-year-old nephew Donghai. Three months earlier, he had cried as he said farewell to his parents and sister in Maliang, a remote village in Hubei Province in central China. Donghai came to Beijing to work for a consultancy firm owned by a friend of mine. But a couple of weeks ago he lost his job after the consultancy was bought by a larger company.

Donghai shares a tiny room with Hong, a mature-age student at the Beijing University of Foreign Trade. It is one of about 40 such rooms in the basement of the university's warehouse. The corridor is dimly lit and lined with cardboard boxes and plastic bags. It reminds me of my own dormitory when I was a college student in Wuhan from 1979 to 1983.

Don

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杂谈

过去几十年,西方的潮流是让生活多姿多彩,赚得多,吃得撑,玩得疯,参与广,吸引眼球多。时髦的人们往往吹牛说自己玩通宵不睡,喝五瓶不醉,兼十个职位不累。

近几年,时尚在变了。美国 Huffington Post 的女创始人 Arianna 去年出了一本书,The Sleep Revolution, 专讲睡觉的重要性和时尚性。

日本女作家 Marie Kondo 出了一本书,讲如何把家里的东西都扔掉。家徒四壁。女心理医生Debbie Chapman 写了一本书,The Joy of No, 心理学家 Svend Brinkmann 写了一本书,The joy of missing out, 都讲如何简化生活,放慢脚步,推掉无谓的社交,避开累人的活动,拒绝不当的请求,清心寡欲,减少暴食暴饮暴买,Saying no is cool and fashionable.

今天的英国卫报有一篇文章,介绍这个新潮流,Burned out and overwhelmed: Should you embrace the joy of no? 

我也许已经在这条时髦的路上走了一段了:我只在一个微信群中。我十几年没有参加校友会了。整个星期,我只收到了两个电话。


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杂谈

十八年前,我的春节回乡见闻登在了“纽约时报”。乡亲们把打麻将和炒股当成了主业。下岗工人成群。我弟弟曾当过城市信用社的主任,所以不敢炒股。为什么?因为他知道企业的“内脏都大大地坏了”!

A return home to China is now a worrying trip.

By JOE ZHANG, FEB. 22, 2001.

The New York Times, IHT.

Once a year, I return home to see my relatives and fellow villagers in several remote parts of Jingmen, in Hubei Province in central China. Despite bumpy mud roads and long-haul buses, seeing them really gives me a wonderful feeling.

But my recent trip, just before the Chinese Lunar New Year, got me worried. My 40-year-old sister, Yuqin, has become almost addicted to playing mahjong, a type of Chinese chess. Trouble is, she and many of her neighbors have plenty of time. They are unemployed and not actively looking for work because the prospects of finding it are not good.

I told Yuqin that long sessions of mahjong could be bad for her health. 'It is just a way t

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杂谈

1986年,敝人在央行工作时,在北洼路的央行干部单身宿舍与行贿者展开了一场艰巨的斗争。1996年8月3日,我將此文发表在纽约时报的IHT.

Refusing a windfall at the doorstep!

By JOE ZHANG, Aug. 3, 1996. The New York Times, IHT.

It was a freezing winter evening in Beijing in 1986 and I was home alone, hand-washing several shirts in the small, dimly lit room that I shared with two colleagues. We all worked at the People's Bank of China, the central bank, where I was a manager.

There were several gentle knocks at the door. When I opened it, three men stood on threshold, smiling. 'How have you been, Huaqiao? Do you still remember me?' one of them asked. Huaqiao is my given name. The visitor introduced himself as Zongzi, a villager from my hometown, Gongchang, a remote spot in central Hubei Province. I remembered that I had seen him there some years before.

I don't wish to sound immodest, but one of the most important events to occur in my hometown in the late 1970

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杂谈

金融可以有普惠的结果,但是把普惠挂在嘴上,是不诚实的表现,也是自信心不足的表现。餐馆的老板从来不说他的餐馆是普惠餐馆。他也从来不说,他开餐馆的原因是因为担心你饿肚子,或者吃饭不方便。当然,在客观上,他确实解决了咱们饿肚子的问题。

普惠只是金融的客观结果之一,是副产品,不是出发点。出发点是赚钱。


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杂谈

By JOE ZHANG, MAY 3, 2001.

 The New York Times. IHT.

On a recent trip here from Hong Kong, I visited my 22-year-old nephew Donghai. Three months earlier, he had cried as he said farewell to his parents and sister in Maliang, a remote village in Hubei Province in central China. Donghai came to Beijing to work for a consultancy firm owned by a friend of mine. But a couple of weeks ago he lost his job after the consultancy was bought by a larger company.

Donghai shares a tiny room with Hong, a mature-age student at the Beijing University of Foreign Trade. It is one of about 40 such rooms in the basement of the university's warehouse. The corridor is dimly lit and lined with cardboard boxes and plastic bags. It reminds me of my own dormitory when I was a college student in Wuhan from 1979 to 1983.

Donghai told me that about 70 people live in the basement, which has two levels. When it rains heavily, dirty water flows into the corridor. Most of the reside

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杂谈

十年前,巴克萊銀行,花旗银行,和MasterCard 的三个中层员工(都是美国人)出来创业,专门为香港,台湾和新加坡的商户做“流水贷”。也是一种信用卡营收的贴现贷款(保理)。资金来源于银行贷款,熟人融资。2012年香港金管局曾试图叫停他们,因为他们没有放贷人牌照,但是他们告赢了政府,理由是他们不放贷,而是做的是保理。(顺便说一下:香港的放贷人牌照由警方颁发。十分容易获得。)

我与三君见过几回。对他们的业务模式感兴趣。今天早上我重新研究此公司,突然发现,三年前,此三君已经...跑路了,留下了5千万美元的出资人在寒风中等待。见南华早报报道(图)。

正巧,我春节前在我的英文博客(LinkedIn)上写过一个关于我的困惑:也许中小企业融资就是一个全球性的陷阱。利率不管多高都不够高。绝大多数中小企业根本就不应该获得任何信贷。而通过风控筛选出值得信赖的中小企业又是难上加难!所以,SME 融资就是一个误会。全世界都是如此。欧美政府都有类似的援助中小企业融资,出口和市场开发的机构。你看看他们的效果和其中的丑闻,你也会寒心的。

不是敝人无心无肺,我是在献身多年以后,冷静地看这个问题。图。


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杂谈

股票和其它任何资产一样,其估值都是利率的倒数(或者反相关)。中国股市的26年历史不算长,但是也不短??墒枪乐滴裁匆恢闭饷锤??同股同权的A H的差距,和A B的差距就是例子。

(1)有人说,因为中国人的投资机会有限。这显然不对。中国人投资理财产品,P2P, 私募基金,麻将,国內房地产,外国房地产,和田玉,字画,都比其它国家方便多了:花样之多,监管之松,外国人民只能羨慕。而且澳门也比较近,A股扩容的速度也很快。

(2)有人说,因为中国的货币供应量增长太快。这也不对。通胀伤害股市,巴菲特已经论证过了,我不想在此重复。而且,中国的货币供应量在过去四十多年一直飞速增长,上升了n倍,与股市明显脱节?;醣夜┯α繗疤於颊?,而股市大起大落!

(3)中国的房产的租售比也很低,即市盈率很高。这跟股票的昂贵可以一比。但是大家对房地产的普遍预期是价格会上升,租金也会上升,这是房子昂贵(即租售比太低)的根本原因。在股市,大家是否有利润持续增长和分红持续增长的预期?

当然,这两个市场毕竟有点区别:房子看得见,摸得着,如果把一个公寓当作一个小公司,那么业主控制这个小公司的100%。而相反,在股市里,股民只

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